"IF YOU SMELL, THE BULL IS COMING"

Hi all, thanks for those who have followed my blog since early January 2016. The purpose of this blog is just for education only. As the time past, more evidence will be revealed. For those who miss the evidence on my past analysis, you can check my previous post.

1. MYR VS USD, 2016 year of recovery-posted on 21st January 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/myr-vs-usd-2016-is-year-of-recovery.html

2. RAMAI KATA GAWAT, TETAPI KENAPA RINGGIT MENGUKUH?-posted on 27th January 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/ramai-kata-gawat-tetapi-kenapa-ringgit.html

3. Big Surprise Rise in Early 2016 for Malaysian Market -posted on 28th January 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/big-surprise-rise-in-early-2016-for.html

4. WTI Crude Oil will stay above 30usd by End of February 2016 -posted on 17th February 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/02/wti-crude-oil-will-stay-above-30usd-by.html

5. My Forecast For Next 2.5 Month on Malaysian Equity Market -posted on 10th March 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/03/my-forecast-for-next-25-month-on.html


 I always relate economy situation with people emotion and historical data. Let me highlight some important things that had happened in 1990s and compared to current economy situation.

1996/97/98s Evidence:

1. LRT was first build

2. Pokémon Goes Viral around the world

Links as per belows :

http://time.com/4238576/best-pokemon-games/

http://www.951wayv.com/pokemon-go-goes-crazy-around-us/

http://www.mid-day.com/photos/photos-world-goes-crazy-over-pokemon-go/10648/117562


3. Malaysian Tallest Building

 It was build in 1993 and completed by 1997

4. Anwar Ibrahim Sacked by UMNO in 1998 and Formed new Coalition

2014/15/16 Evidence:

1. LRT 2

2. POKEMON GO Phenomenal

History repeated itself........

Link as per below:

http://lovingfutbol.com/2016/07/17/pokemon-go-now-the-biggest-mobile-game-in-us-history/


3. Menara Warisan Will be Tallest Building in Malaysia

4. Malaysian Political Issue, Tan Sri Muhyiddin was Deputy President sacked by UMNO in 2016

Now he set to joint new coalition and team up with the opposition parties.
 

There a lot of evidence but I'm highlighted few of them...WHAT DOES IT MEAN?


"After the year of 1998, KLCI moving Higher and Higher!!!!!!"

=============================================

2016 Fear Factor Main Driven for Bull to Return. See the snapshot below

If you search on youtube, you might came across, all the stock market "SIFU" call for market crash since early January 2016. The fact is, it moving into another direction!!!...I'd explained in my previous post about GOLD and Crude Oil trend. They movement against what most people thought.


======================================================================

World Indices Started to Move Higher and Higher




Dow Jones

Dow Target Point : 20000




Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng Target Point : 24000-28000




Nikkei Index

Nikker Target Point : 20000

 




Singapore Index

Singapore Target Point : 330



KLSE Index

KLSE Target Point : 1800-1900


As what you can see here, these are the evidences of market turn up to bullish trend. We are at the beginning of the bullish pattern. This is my forecast for next 6 months on the indices. Most analyst will ponder, what cause this movement???.....

The answer is... WHEN SO MANY COMPANIES DO DOWNSIZING ACTIVITY, IT A SIGN OF PEAK OF RECESSION PERIOD.

The reason behind this is that every government in this world wont let this happen for prolong. When this happen it cause the Growth Domestic Product(GDP) trending moderately. Low purchasing power cause low GDP. Every government will plan for stimulus program to retain their economy. One of the way is to introduce "Low Interest Rate" for people to lending/financing money. This what had happened to other emerging country like JAPAN, Malaysia and China.

The next coming 6 months my tagline is "IF YOU SMELL, THE BULL IS COMING"!!!!

STAY TUNE GUYS.......The fear is about to over....

WHAT MAKE WARRENT BUFFET INVEST IN PHILIPS 66?

 

 

Hi All,

 

When we heard Warrant Buffet started to invest in oil company, are we going to bullish on energy sector?

 

Guys, waits a minute, read below article for your understanding

 

 

1. Article : Is Warren Buffett Becoming More Bullish on Energy?

 

Warren Buffett sidestepped much of the energy decline. In March 2014, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) had substantial exposure to a number of upstream/integrated companies, including ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). According to SEC filings, Berkshire Hathaway owned over 41 million shares of ExxonMobil on March 31, 2014, worth $4 billion at the time. Berkshire also had 11 million shares of ConocoPhillips on its balance sheet, worth $779 million. 

When crude prices started showing signs of potentially falling, however, Buffett quickly cut his stake in ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil and by December 31, 2014, Berkshire owned zero shares of either company. Buffett's decision to divest the two super-majors from Berkshire's portfolio turned out to be the right decision -- ExxonMobil has declined by 13% since December 31, 2014 while ConocoPhillips has fallen by over half. If crude stays lower for longer, the two stocks may never be the free cash flow machines that they were in the early to mid 2000's, and their returns may not be as attractive as they were historically. 

Increasing downstream exposureWhile Buffett has assiduously avoided companies with upstream exposure (with the lone exception being Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU)), Berkshire has aggressively added to its holdings downstream. According to SEC filings, Berkshire Hathaway established a position in the oil refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) in early 2015 and gradually built its position up from that point. In early February 2015, Buffett added another 1.69 million shares, giving Berkshire a total of 74 million shares, or around 14% of Phillips 66's float.
Unlike upstream companies, oil refiners such as Phillips 66 don't need high crude prices to do well. Refiners benefit from the crack spread, or the price difference between crude oil and the petroleum products extracted from crude. Because demand for petroleum products has been robust because of the strong U.S. economy, and crude prices have been weak because of oversupply, the crack spread has been wide, and many refiners have been extremely profitable. Given the low natural gas prices and the limited capacity growth in the refining industry, the future for refiners looks bright. 

Berkshire Hathaway adding midstream exposureIn addition to purchasing Phillips 66 shares, Berkshire Hathaway also established a position in Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) too. According to SEC filings, Berkshire Hathaway bought a brand-new 26.53 million share stake in the midstream giant in the fourth quarter, worth roughly $395.9 million. Kinder Morgan shares have fallen substantially over the last year due to fears that the weak energy prices could translate to less volumes that flow through Kinder Morgan's pipelines and that the resulting lower EBITDA could make it hard for Kinder Morgan to service its debt and fund its growth projects at the same time.

The bearish fears prompted the market to raise Kinder Morgan's cost of capital up to a point where Kinder management decided that they had to cut the dividend by 75% to internally fund the company's growth capital expenditures. The resulting dividend cut sent Kinder Morgan's stock even lower.



2. Oil and Gas Company by Hierarchy

Understand the hierarchy give us clear picture on business nature of the oil and gas industry. Below are the hierarchy:

 

 

 

CLIENT- This is an oil producer and the ownership of some oilfield/oilrig and responsible to refine oil to become fuel.

 

CONSULTANT- They provide engineering study of design oilfield facilities and some of the company involve in early engineering work(Conceptual , Front-End Engineering, Detail Design), later stage Construction and Commissioning.

 

CONTRACTOR/VENDOR- Mainly involve supply equipment, such as vessel, crane and pumps.

 

SERVICES COMPANY- Basically they involve in early stage or oil exploration( seabed study, drilling). They also provide maintenance services for some major equipment.

 

 

As we can see for the hierarchy, why Warrant Buffet due to the nature of the business. He bought share of oil producer company instead of in the services, consultant and contractor segment.

 

 

3. Be Wise And Smart Like Warrent Buffet

 

 

CLIENT  SEGMENT

 

PHILIP 66

 

 

 

 

PETRONAS GAS


 

SHELL-NETHERLAND


 

 

CONSULTANT  SEGMENT

 

KNM


 

SKPETRO


 

THHEVY

 

 

TECHNIP

 

 

 

These are the chart which have different segment in oil and gas industry. As u can see, most of the pattern are almost similar according to their segment.

 

So what make Warrent Buffet so smart? HE FOLLOW THE TREND!!!!!!. When oil price drop so much, this will benefit downstream segment in oil and gas which will make more profit in coming quarter. Same goes to PETRONAS Gas. This entity is refine gas for the consumer especially for household use and another alternative energy compared fuel.

 

So, he get back to fundamental basis and not invest blindly. To those who big fan of Warrent Buffet, study his pick stock and he is very selective in oil and gas stock.

 

Trade with FACT(Technical Analysis + Fundamental Study) but not with hope because HOPE is just fake satisfaction to cold down your nerve.

 

 

That's all!!!. All the best... 

 



 

MYR, Crude Oil And Gold Next direction 1-2 Months

 

 

 

 

 

Hi all, thanks to those who follow my blog in past few months. I've been quite for a while and to analyze market trend. To those new reader, feel free to follow my analysis in previous blogging.

 

 1.2016: When Most People Bearish, We Bullish

http://www.iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/2016-when-most-people-bearish-we-bullish.html

2. BIG Suprise In Early 2016

http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/big-surprise-rise-in-early-2016-for.html

3 . MYR will strengthening
 http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/malaysia-ringgit-will-strengthen-to.html

 4. WTI will stay above 30USD by end of Febuary 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/02/wti-crude-oil-will-stay-above-30usd-by.html

 5. My Forecast on next 2.5 months
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/03/my-forecast-for-next-25-month-on.html



 

 

 

 

CRUDE OIL WTI

 

As my previous prediction 2.5 months theory, oil price hit year high 50usd. Now its time for oil price to take a breath. My latest analysis and indicator shows that oil price will remain sideway temporary. Major trend still downtrend and the price just hit lower band of the uptrend channel which I believe the price just hit the resistance. Remember on February 2016 I wrote about oil price when the price was the lowest for almost 10 years as it hit 26usd. Now price almost double from the lowest price.
I'm expecting there will be shorterm retrenchment in range of 45usd and the lowest it may hit 38usd.



GOLD

 

Gold currently heavily strong reversal signal and anytime it may hit 1400usd. Now the price close at 1274usd. Obviously the bull trend for gold is much more clear compared to other commodity. technically with current momentum it may hit new high


MYR VS USD

Technically MYR already strengthening till RM3.8 in April. At the moment I see the shorterm weakness on MYR/USD. My technical signal shows that, MYR will sideway in the range RM4.20-RM4.00. However, any bad sentiment can cause the MYR weaker to the max level RM4.30 if the level RM4.20 can be breach. I don't believe the price will hit above RM4.30 although the influence of bad sentiment especially rumors on 1MDB cases. The external factor such as low crude oil price has bigger influence than the internal factor. This issue I have been highlighted in my previous post. Current market volatility is just temporary and I see when the commodity price stabilize, everything will get back to normal.


Stay Tune on my next blogging.........Thanks for the reading

 

Chart Vs News, Which is comes first?

Hi all

Meet you all again. Whats up!!, MYR now at below RM4.00

Before I step further, please have read the post I wrote in past few week :

1.2016: When Most People Bearish, We Bullish

http://www.iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/2016-when-most-people-bearish-we-bullish.html

2. BIG Suprise In Early 2016

http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/big-surprise-rise-in-early-2016-for.html

3 . MYR will strengthening
 http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/malaysia-ringgit-will-strengthen-to.html

 4. WTI will stay above 30USD by end of Febuary 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/02/wti-crude-oil-will-stay-above-30usd-by.html

 5. My Forecast on next 2.5 months
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/03/my-forecast-for-next-25-month-on.html



First of all, I would like to thanks to those read my view on KLCI market trend and MYR movement.

Since early of January most people were talking about market crash, crash and crash all over the world.

1. Take a good lesson from "Warren Buffett Word"

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Take a look KLCI chart

 

 

 

 

 

Look at the pattern in the red circle. Most the pattern almost the same. As per today I'm expect KLCI to close at range 1712-1715 points. The midterm target is 1774 points within this 2.5 months.

 

As per what I seen, currently KLCI has completed the form of strong base to push the push index further Bullish.

 

 

3. Average Bull vs Bear for KLCI,

 

 

Look at the table below. Average index for KLCI in bear market 9.3 months.

 

From the chart, Index started to Bearish in August 2014 until the lowest in August 2015(12 months).

 

As seen from the current trend, Since Early January 2016, KLCI keep hit new high for every closing month.

 

This was predicted as I said in my previous post "2016-Year Of Recovery".

4. MYR Keep Strengthening


See the MYR pattern, Its follow the past history movement

 

5. Good News Started To Spread

http://www.stockhut.com.my/news/113150




Overall on the market trend, we can see the movement of the chart tell you the early story before the good news comes to spread. Last year we heard the bad news on Malaysian market.
So you decide where are we? I stay bullish on Malaysian Market until the end of the year...

MYR Hit RM4.0 As Aspected!!

 

 

Before I step further, please have read the post I wrote in past few week :

1. BIG Suprise In Early 2016

http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/big-surprise-rise-in-early-2016-for.html

2. MYR will strenghten
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/malaysia-ringgit-will-strengthen-to.html

3. WTI will stay above 30USD by end of Febuary 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/02/wti-crude-oil-will-stay-above-30usd-by.html

4. My Forecast on next 2.5 months
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/03/my-forecast-for-next-25-month-on.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today shown remarkable comeback for MYR since August 2015. See the "RED Dotted Line".

It show the uptrend line has broken. This shows that, USD no longer up trending against MYR.

I see MYR will move toward RM3.80 anytime from now. It might give free fall toward near RM3.6 if sentiment are good, but the strong support now is at RM3.8. I had highlighted about MYR since early 2016.

 

SECTOR ON FOCUS:

 

1. Construction

-MRCB, UEMS, WCT, BINAPURI, AZRB, ZELAN, FRONTKN, SILKH,

2. Property
-MKLAND, ECOWORLD, MKH, GLOCOLAND

3. Plantation
-TDM, Dutaland, Rsawit, FGV, Jtiasa

**Declaimer : This is not a buy call, please conduct with your remiser or relevant person for technical checking

There are too many sector can be monitor for stock trading, but please avoid export base stocks or rubber industry.



REMEMBER MY WORD

"THE BULL OR BEAR NEVER TELL IN PUBLIC BUT IT WILL GIVE A SIGN TO THINK"



Anyone of u still remember when Soros came to Asia this year and mention in public he will short yuan?
IT WAS IN JANUARY 2016


Does anyone of u realize when MYR started to strengthening?
IT WAS IN JANUARY 2016


When you see the first time oil hit the lowest for almost 20 years?
IT WAS IN JANUARY 2016



 Lets put all together the bad news in January 2016, u will started to realize there too many bad news mention in media....

 

 

Ok, I guess it enough for now.....Keep positive in 2016. The year of recovery is just started

 

 

My Forecast For Next 2.5 Month on Malaysian Equity Market

Hi All,

Long time haven't write up blog

Who already follow me, I want to recall back few study I made recently since early January 2016

Just back from holiday trip and get some rest while market were still turbulent.

Before I step further, please have read the post I wrote in past few week :


1. BIG Suprise In Early 2016

http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/big-surprise-rise-in-early-2016-for.html

2. MYR will strenghten
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/01/malaysia-ringgit-will-strengthen-to.html

3. WTI will stay above 30USD by end of Febuary 2016
http://iamventure.blogspot.my/2016/02/wti-crude-oil-will-stay-above-30usd-by.html


First of all, I wrote this article by put aside all the political agenda. In economy we deal with the real fact but not emotional fact. The year of turbulent due to Crude Oil Crisis Almost Reach The End

Current market volatility. Many people said it hard to make money. I would say YES!.

But I remain firm, our Malaysian Economy remain firm despite the weaker ringgit.



1. MYR Remain Strong




















Technically, MYR remain stron as per my study in early January 2016. It will continue strong until reach first target which at RM4.00 and RM3.8 respectively.

Oil inventory in USA also decline and the numbers of rig shutdown increasing



2. Oil Remain Bullish in Shorterm

I believe as per my study, starting march until mid of May, oil will remain above 35usd. It will climb up slow to reach 40usd and 44usd before another major correction take place.

Recent news, Saudi proposal to freeze the oil output to stabilize the given a strong signal to the world that they would more stimulus program to take place.


3. Most Country has Started Stimulus Plan

Most country including Malaysia has started their stimulus plan. This show good sign.

Japan cut their interest rate to negative rate.

4. The Bear Market Is About To End

Where are we now?

Let me remind u, the bear market history longest take around 18 months which was in 1997/1998.

In the the short period we will face sideway condition overall in equity market. After a huge correction period between 2014-2015, we will see strong recovery. The huge drop will accompany with sideway condition and to decide next moment.

5. KLCI Movement

My projection on KLCI, it will test the 1725 resistant as it become major resistant to hit, before a strong rally take place. Within this 2.5 months we will see the movement upward.


Stay Tune in my next post on the stock in my list to hold for midterm and longterm....stay tuneee

WTI Crude Oil will stay above 30usd by End of Febuary 2016

WTI CRUDE OIL

Recent news from OPEC and Non-Opec to freeze the production is the first step for oil producer country plan for recovery.

Most investor are hopping for cut production, but things come up differently. 

From the chart, I see a strong double bottom, and in order for the price the downtrend line, price has to break 33usd.

As for the oil movement, I'm strong believe, more upside movement from oil in coming days.

Good Luck all, Happy Trading

5 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW WHY OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY AT ROCK BOTTOM

Everywhere you go, you may heard, people are talking about market crash. Many people tend to believe, the oil price will drop further downward.

One thing people have forget, as I always said, "Bull or Bear it wont tell you in the public but it give u sign to think". 

If you followed my previous posting, I had elaborate on market recovery starting from this year. 

As for this posting I will highlight on oil and gas rock bottom era.

1. Many Oil and Gas company Issue For Bankruptcy

http://www.malaysiandigest.com/bahasa-malaysia/594475-150-syarikat-minyak-dunia-bakal-muflis.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=malaysian+digest

2. Many Retrenchment Activity in Oil and Gas Industry 

http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/12/10/219-locals-retrenched-from-oil-gas-industry-in-first-10-months/

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/petronas-mulling-vss-report-says

http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/shell-cut-1300-staff-malaysia

3. Money Lending Policy Is Tightening 

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/01/21/bsn-admits-to-issuing-notice-on-oil-and-gas-employees/

4. Crude Oil Drop to the Worse More Than A Decade

Crude oil hit to the lowest since 2009, and the lowest in 2016 is at 26.12 USD

5. High Hedge Fund, Short Oil

The chart show you, the hedge funds maximize short and creating new high hedging. This show market extremely in bad condition. If they are really smart, hedge fund should maximize short position at early stage of bear market but not now.

Many people are talking about market crash, but we have to remember lot of commodity are started to rebound and recovery. 

Crude oil down almost 70% from higher 104USd to current low.

Oil price might not fast rebound as it happened in 2009, but it may gradually recovery.

I'm still believe the OPEC and NON-OPEC has to do something to rescue the industry or else they also may suffer due to low crude oil price. The current price is too low and not significant to do and expand oil business.

Stay tune, I'll keep updating the info