PASARAN SAHAM DAN PERMAINAN MINDA

Sejak berkecimpung dalam bidang pelaburan saham, saya telah menghadiri beberapa kelas dan seminar yang dianjurkan oleh "SIFU2 SAHAM" dan saya telah merangka beberapa analisa. Dibawah saya ingin kongsikan pada anda



1. APA ITU ZERO SUM GAME?

Memang pelaburan saham adalah pelaburan yang berisiko tinggi dan hanya beberapa peratus sahaja yang berjaya dalam pelaburan ini disebabkan, pelaburan saham adalah "Zero Sum Game"

Dalam pelaburan ada "Pembeli" dan "Penjual". Maknanya untuk tempoh tertentu yang menyebabkan berlaku pergerakan harga saham adalah pembeli dan penjual. Mereka yang mengerakan harga sesuatu saham.

Pelaburan ini akan menyebabkan ada yang "Untung" dan "Rugi" dan risiko ini harus kita teliti dan perhalusi sebelum membuat pelaburan


2. SAHAM DAN EMOSI PELABUR


Pergerakan harga saham boleh naik atau turun ia bergantung emosi pelabur.

Harga Naik Laju- Pelabur terlampau ghairah dan kekal positif

Harga Turun Laju- Pelabur terlampau negatif dengan sentimen

Tidak dinafikan akan ada unsur spekulasi dalam pelaburan saham sebelum sesuatu berita dikeluar.

Saya akan tampilkan beberapa contoh carta saham sebagai bahan rujukan


Kes Kajian: Wintoni:

WINTONI MONTHLY CHART

Harga saham boleh naik sehingga 200% dalam masa tidak sampai 2 bulan dan ia boleh turun semula kepada harga asal dalam beberapa bulan yang mendatang. Saham ini terlibat dalam sektor hartanah dan dalam pergerakan harga menaik sebelum ini,tiada berita2

Bagi saya, setiap bar2 harga ini melambangkan emosi pelabur dalam mengerakan harga.



Kes Kajian: Evergreen

EVERGREEN MONTHLY CHART

Harga saham boleh naik sehingga 150% dalam masa tidak sampai setahun dan ia terus kenaikan. Saham ini dalam sektor perkayuaan dan banyak menerima keuntungan hasil export barang ke luar negara dengan kelemahan ringgit.

Dalam tempoh yang singkat ini saya menjangkakan lebih banyak saham2 berkaintan export ke luar negara akan mengalami fasa "corrective" atau kejatuhan disebabkan ringgit yang makin mengukuh


3. PASARAN SAHAM NAIK ATAU TURUN BUKAN SALAH ORANG POLITIK

Saya sering menafikan apa yang berlaku dalam pergerakan harga saham bukan disebabkan salah mana2 pihak. Saya telah tampilkan dua jenis saham, pertama WINTONI dan EVERGREEN. Lihat sahaja dua carta di atas, walaupun terlalu banyak isu sensitif digembur2kan apakah harga2 saham ini terus jatuh atau turun?

Pada point no.2 saya ada sebut tentang emosi pelabur. Tahun 2014/2015, terlalu banyak isu sesnsitif digembar gemburkan dalam negara kita. Antaranya

1. Isu 1MDB
2. Pemecatan Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin
3. Pemenjaraan Semula Anwar Ibrahim
4. Kes Althantuya

Dalam menganalisa pelaburan saham, sentimen seperti ini memberi peluang keemasan kepada pelabur yang bijak dan ideologi politik harus diketepikan dalam membuat urusan jual beli saham.

Jika benar sentimen ini memainkan peranan mereka, kenapa semua saham tidak turun seiring dengan keluarnya berita2 negatif ini?

SAHAM NAIK ATAU TURUN SEBAB ADA CERITANYA SAHAM ITU SENDIRI, BUKAN SEBAB ORANG POLITIK.


4. PASARAN BULL ATAU BEAR TIDAK AKAN BERITAHU HARI ATAU MASA IA AKAN MUNCUL, TETAPI IA MEMBERI TANDA UNTUK KITA BERFIKIR

Banyak perkara berlaku dalam kehidupan kita ini berkait rapat dengan emosi manusia

Saya bagi contoh :

Tsunami- Tsunami tanpa memberitahu bila ia berlaku tetapi sebelum ia berlaku akan ada tanda2 banyak ikan terdambar di persisiran pantai.

Hujan- sebelum turunnya hujan, kita akan melihat langit yang mendung dan gelap serta diikuti ribut petir.

Sakit- Sebelum sesuatu penyakit itu dirawat, doktor akan membuat pemeriksaan dan melihat tanda2 atau sintom2 pada diri kita. Hasil pemeriksaan dijalankan, baru la penyakit dirawat.

Kiamat- Sebagai seorang muslim, saya percaya, tanda2 kiamat  yang diberitahu tetapi tidak diberitahu bila masa, hari dan waktu akan tiba secara spesifik.


Bagi saya point no.4 ini sangat penting untuk mengawal emosi kita. Pelaburan saham adalah permainan minda yang perlu kita pelajari. Setiap yang berlaku di keliling kita da tanda2 tersendiri.

Yang pasti kita kene ingat dan sentiasa positif, apabila ramai orang cemas, lihat dan kaji tanda2 kebangkitan. Tanda "bull reversal" saya ada sebut dalam posting sebelum ini. Boleh layari untuk rujukan.

http://iamventure.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-when-most-people-bearish-we-bullish.html



5. "MEGASALE" ADALAH PELUANG KEEMASAN

Pernah kah anda membeli belah?

Adakah apabila ada jualan MEGA dan murah, anda pasti mencari barang berjenama dan berkualiti, betul?


Kenapa anda tidak mengaplikasikan perkara sama dalam pelaburan saham?

Pilih Saham:

1. Syarikat Untung
2. Berpotensi Untung
3. Trend menaik atau potensi menaik

Apabila sesuatu saham berkualiti itu turun baru2 ini disebabkan sentimen pelabur yang tidak tentu pasal, adakah perlu kita goyah?

Seharusnya, minda kita perlu terbuka dalam pembeliaan jual beli saham seperti kita membeli belah pada apabila ada mega sale.

Apabila sentimen pudar, saham2 berkualiti ini akan meneruskankan kenaikan yang lebih tinggi.

Ambil contoh saham Nihsin dan WCT. Kedua2 saham2 ini tutup lebih tinggi daripada penghujung bulan sebelum ini dikala ramai orang berpendapat, selepas pengumuman budget harga saham akan turun.

Sebagai pelabur bijak, kita perlu tahu mencari peluang dan buka minda secara terbuka dan tidak terikut2 dengan emosi pelabur lain. Dikala orang ghairah membeli, kita menjual dan fahami trend sesebuah saham.

7 Fakta Sejarah Berulang 1998 VS 2015

1. MENARA KLCC VS MENARA WARISAN

Pada tahun 1998- KLCC Merupakan Menara Tertinggi di Malaysia

Pada tahun 2015- KL118 atau Menara Warisan sedang di bina bakal Menjadi Bangunan Tertinggi di Malaysia Menjelang 2020


2. LRT VS MRT

Pada tahun 1998- 1 September 1998, LRT mula beroperasi

Pada tahun 2015- MRT dalam pembinaan dan mula beroperasi pada tahun 2016



3. SORROS KEMBALI KE NEGARA ASIA

1998- He shorting Bath, Thailand

2016- He shorting Yuan, China Market



4. RINGGIT TERENDAH DALAM SEJARAH

1998- Ringgit Terendah mencecah RM4.80 dalam sejarah Malaysia

2015- Ringgit Terendah mencecah RM4.40 sejak tahun 1998

LINK :

http://www.utusan.com.my/bisnes/ekonomi/ringgit-terendah-sejak-1998-1.133022



5. SKANDAL PERWAJA VS SKANDAL 1MDB

Sejarah mencatat pada 1998, terdapat skandal penyalahgunaan dana oleh perwaja melibat bekas perdana menteri ketika itu iaitu TUN Mahathir

Sejarah mencatat, perkara yang sama pada 2014-2015, skandal 1MDB dengan Perdana Menteri iaitu Datuk Seri Najib Razak.



6. TIMBALAN PERDANA MENTERI DITUKAR

1998- Perdana Menteri ketika itu Tun Mahathir memecat Datuk Sri Anwar Ibrahim

2015- Datuk Seri Najib menukar Tan Sri Muhyidin Yassin dengan Datuk Zahid Hamidi



7. SHAH RUKH KHAN DAN KAJOL KEMBALI

Siapa peminat hindustan?

Siapa tak kenal Shah Rukh Khan dan Kajol?


1998- Kuch Kuch Hota Hai

2015- Dilwale




SEJARAH ITU BERULANG CUMA KEADAAN DAN MASA BERBEZA!

BANYAK LAGI HIMPUNAN SEJARAH YANG BERULANG DAN BOLEH DISELIDIK.

APA YANG DI RASA ADALAH SEBUAH SEJARAH YANG BERULANG DAN IA AKAN TERUS BERULANG.

MAKA APA YANG KITA RASA PAHIT TAHUN SEBELUMNYA ADALAH KEMUNCAK SEGALANYA, DAN SAYA PERCAYA DALAM KEGELISAHAN ORANG RAMAI,
AKAN BERLAKU KEJUTAN TERHADAP EKONOMI DAN IA AKAN POSITIF DALAM RIBUT KEGAWATAN MELANDA....


2016, SEJARAH BARU BAKAL TERCIPTA

Malaysia Ringgit Will Be Strengthen Against USD to RM4.00 in FEB'16

Hi all once again..

Today many investment bank analysis wonder, why MYR strengthen while other regional market are weak.

Every market have their own fundamental base. That things I already explained in my previous post. 

Let take a look at MYR on closing month on January 2016. Two support has broken which are at RM4.30 and RM4.215.

I believe, the buying force came from foreign investor. This what I've been telling you in my previous post, when ever people had too much negative issue rise in media, the Bull market is about to appear. 

Most people thought, after the revise budget announcement on 28 JAN'16, KLCI index will shoot down, but things will go another way around.

Let me tell you something, when people analyze with assumption and in emotional mood, things might happen another way around.

Since 21st January'16, from the day first I wrote this blog, my stand remain unchanged , 2016 is the year of recovery when so many negative issue rise.

MYR DAILY CHART

MARKET PARTICIPANT 29th JAN '16

After few months, this is the first time I saw, foreign fund coming back to Malaysian market in the huge amount.

INDEX KLCI 29th JAN '16

Did u see the huge volume in the red circle? This indicate, investor want to move the price higher when the trend currently in correction wave. In coming months, I'm expect KLCI will move higher than previous month closing


 As per my forecast , I remain firm, 2016 is the year of recovery....

Big Surprise Rise in Early 2016 for Malaysian Market

Hi all, meet u all again..

Since 21st January, I've been blogging to educate and motivate investors or traders to look out of the box. Now after few days, we seen the result which give us clear direction where Malaysia are heading.

I've always have contradict view with many economy analyze

My simple indicator is:

"BULL OR BEAR MARKET WONT TELL US IN PUBLIC WHEN IT HAVE TO BEGIN OR END BUT IT GIVE U A SIGN TO THINK"

I shared with you guys in previous post about my experience being retrench by one of great oil and gas company in my post "2016: When Most People Bearish, We Bullish", it taught me how to look market in bigger picture. 

So as for the evidence let me show you the big surprise:

1. RINGGIT STRENGTHENING

MYR AGAINST USD CHART

Its clear distribution  pattern of MYR. For the time being I see two strong support which is at RM4.15 and RM4.00 need to be broken. This came into surprise when Moody Rating eventually downgrade Malaysian economy in 2016.

Link

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/moody-s-cuts-malaysia-credit-rating-outlook-on-weaker-finances

2. CRUDE OIL REBOUND FROM LOW 26USD TO 34USD

CRUDE OIL WTI DAILY CHART

Temporary in shorterm trend, I see oil hit until 26USD and bounce back today high 34USD. These due to technical re bounce and the rumor Russian want to discuss with OPEC to cut the oil production. Let see, if oil can maintain at current price, but i believe in shorterm trend the oil may hit up to 37USD.

I'm forecasting oil may sideway temporary for around 2-3 years at below price of 65USD

At current price, I didnt believe the oil may hit 20usd and below since the demand for oil still strong but at the same time it will kill small player in oil and gas

3. TPPA APPROVED IN PARLIMENT on 27 Jan 2016

This is one of the reason why foreign positive inflow money to our market. They look into opportunity to extend their investment in Malaysia.

Sector In Focus:

1. Construction

2. Plantation

3. Technology

4. Services

5. Export

6. Medicine 

In the next 10years, Malaysian Economy Demography might be changed and the source of income may less dependency on oil revenue

Some of us might not understand when the exact date of implementation of TPPA.

By Febuary 2016, Malaysia will sign the agreement  with other members. Technically, TPPA will ready to be implement after 2 years. So what u aspect during these 2 years buffer time?

I'm believe , in shorterm construction sector will be more attractive as they need to provide the facilities for foreign investor, e.g MRT, Highspeed Train highway and Building.

I believe when oil price already stabilize, more project will be awarded by the government toward their glc.

4. SOROS SHORTING YUAN

I'm not surprise if Soros ones again return to short China Market and post it in public. This is not the first time he did shorting. In 1998, during asian financial crisis, Soros one of the main player shorting asian market.

If you ask me about the return of Soros, I would say, its time for bull market to return.

What happen in 1998, when he did shorting the asian currency, after the event, the bull market take place.

While he shorting China Yuan in this year,  Malaysian economy had less impact and can sustain recently at certain level of point for KLCI

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/chinese-media-slam-george-soros-for-declaring-war-on-yuan

5. MANY PEOPLE ARE PREPARE FOR BEAR MARKET IN 2016

If you follow my previous post, I share on  Soros statement about market crash. He eventually every year spoke about the same thing and same script to create market panic.

For many years, I see the trend are same. When we are panic, we lost our mind. We lost track our technical and fundamental understanding.

Just make it simple, when everyone think the same thing, who gonna think another side of thinking?.

The bear or bull market comes without notice. It will give u a big shoot.

This year we seen, many oil and gas employee had been retrenched due to current low oil price.

What I seen here was the rock bottom of decline in economy. In 1998, I asked my father, he did face the same thing but even worsen. But, after the bad economy condition, the government will interfere to ensure the market stabilize. This what I mean, think another way around being optimistic when other people are panic.

6. 29th JAN'16, SECOND LINEAR STOCK WILL REBOUND AND MAKE NEW HIGH

After gone trough huge selling pressure over the fortnight , I believe it the right time for the second linear stock in KLCI to rebound. 

Ringgit already strengthen up to RM4.16 which cause a good sign for most of the stock to move upward.

Inline with Chinese New Year Rally, I believe the rally in stock market are still validate.

This time it will move higher than previous month closing.

So its time to harvest stock...

Stay Tune......

RAMAI KATA GAWAT, TETAPI KENAPA RINGGIT MENGUKUH?

Hi semua, kali ini saya nak tulis dalam bahasa pula...


Ramai diluar sana kata tahun 2016 adalah tahun gawat. Antara alasan mereka :

1. Ramai orang diberhentikan kerja terutama syarikat minyak
2. Harga komoditi minyak jatuh teruk
3. Harga barang naik disebabkan faktor inflasi

Saya dari awal lagi mengambil pandangan berbeza. Bukan pertama kali saya melihat perkara ini dan scenario gawat, bahkan saya banyak kali melihat scenario ini. Kegelisahan orang ramai adalah indikator penting bagi saya kerana ia merupakan kemuncak segala perubahan.

Pernah anda ketawa terbelahak2 sehingga keluar air mata?

Situasinya sama dalam ekonomi dunia. Apabila suatu ekonomi sampai kemuncak, akan berlaku pembetulan ekonomi terhadap harga2 pasaran.

Berbalik mengenai gawat, ramai akan berpendapat tahun 2016 akan gawat. Walhal mereka lupa,
ramai pakar2 ekonomi menyebut perihal gawat hampir setiap tahun. Lihat artikel dibawah

ARTIKEL 1

http://www.beritasemasa.com.my/prof-dr-hoo-ke-ping-kegawatan-ekonomi-malaysia

ARTIKEL 2

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/249444




Apabila perkara disensasikan dalam media, ia akan mengalakkan orang ramai membaca, maka akan lebih ramai runsing dan gelisah kerana yang berkata tentang gawat itu adalah pakar ekonomi.

Apa yang ingin saya kongsikan pada anda semua, sebuah fakta yang hanya dapat dirungkai melalui pergerakan harga tukaran Ringgit-USD. Ini adalah fakta penting yang boleh difahami melalui carta aliran matawang

                                                     CARTA RINGGIT 10 TAHUN

Mari saya kongsi pada anda. Pada 21hb Januari 2016, saya terpangil untuk menulis blog. Saya melihat ada kekuatan pada matawang ringgit ini. Pada ketika ini harga minyak serendah 30usd untuk WTI. Sila lihat carta di bawah.

                                                         HARGA MINYAK WTI 

INDEKS KLCI 20 TAHUN

Saya berpendapat jika harga minyak pada paras 31USD, seharusnya, ringgit mencecah anggaran RM3.70 mengikut sejarah harga sebelum ini dan Indeks KLCI seharusnya mencecah 800point. Banyak persoalan yang timbul.

Secara rumusan perbandingan harga.


JAN 1998

Minyak          : 15.70USD
Ringgit          : RM4.80
Indeks KLCI : 459point


JAN 2009

Minyak          : 32.7USD
Ringgit          : RM3.60
Indeks KLCI : 872point

JAN 2016

Minyak          : 32.13USD
Ringgit          : RM4.235
Indeks KLCI : 1631point

Anda sendiri melihat perbezaan ketara antara harga minyak, ringgit dan indeks klci. Pergerakan harga tidak seimbang daripada tahun ke tahun

Maka saya buat kajiaan lebih lanjut dan rujuk "reserve BNM"

RESERVE 1998

RESERVE 2009

RESERVE 2016

Jika diselidik dengan teliti, kita akan melihat reserve bank negara makin giat bertambah, dan secara rumusnya, reserve BNM: 

1998- 20.3 billion USD

2009- 91.5 billion USD

2016- 95.1 billion USD

Reserve BNM ini penting sebagai satu indikasi bahawa negara kita mempunyai lebihan aset bagi menampung pembelanjaan negara.

Secara kasarnya, saya melihat nilai matawang ringgit saya "Undervalue" berbanding pertumbuhan ekonomi yang boleh di lihat melalui indek klci pada hari ini berbanding hari sebelumnya

Secara umumnya, tahun 2016 adalah tahun terbaik untuk melabur dikala ramai orang cemas tak tentu pasal tanpa melihat rizab dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Apa yang kita rasa hari ini adalah, kesan hasil kejatuhan melampau harga minyak dunia yang saya lihat hampir penghujung.

Hari ini saya melihat ringgit makin mengukuh dari hari ke hari. Pengukuhan ini didokong oleh keputusan parlimen menyokong usul menandatangani TPPA

Ok selamat malam semua

2016: When Most People Bearish, We Bullish

Hi all, ones again we meet up...

2016, many negative we heard from many investor. It seem that everyone already prepare for the worst. The worst were added when so many people had been retrenched by their employer. According from my source, around 6000-7000 oil and worker in Malaysia have been retrenched by their company and they offering Mandatory Sovereign Scheme(MSS) or Voluntary Sovereign Scheme(VSS). This is not include the news about banking sector retrenchment.

Reader, let me tell u my story that may relate to stock market.

There was a company in 2012-2013, that hired massive numbers of employee when they obtain billion of oil and gas job. The interview session and the intake made with an open interview at prestige hotel in Kuala Lumpur. Hundred of people came and some of them get the offer.

Back in 2013-2014, they have been awarded one of the best employee in Malaysia, but today things already changed. Starting end of 2014, when the crude oil slide down from 110USD, they started to layoff people. Last year itself, they release 600 employee out of total around 2500 workers. This year they expect to continue the exercise. Should we gave them award when , the worst employee in 2016?...hehehe...

Below are the list of top employee. So where are they now?...



Top Employee Award :

LINK

http://www.malaysiandigest.com/news/484068-top-10-s-best-companies-in-malaysia-to-work-for.html

http://universumglobal.com/ideal-employer-rankings/student-surveys/malaysia-2014/



What I'm trying to share with u all, that how exactly the economy looks like.

When the economy growth rapidly, everyone are very excited, employer were crazy and offering  jobs, hiring many people and forget about market crash.

What happen recently, it happen another way around to last previous great time. People now days talk about market crash, so many people are fear, even some say Malaysia will bankruptcy.

Many people lost in their mind. If i ask them what is 2-1?, they might answer -1. But reality the answer shall be 1. Thats the analogy I may relate to the major people reaction in current economy situation.

Take a look at George Soros statement about world economy. Almost every years he did mention about economy collapse. Why every year he has to the same thing? Do you think every year market bearish?



ARTICLE About George Soros:

2012-George Soros Talks of Economic Collapse in the West

http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/4538-george-soros-talks-of-economic-collapse-in-the-west

2013-George Soros Bet $1.3 Billion The Stock Market Will Fall

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/18/george-soros-stock-market_n_4810434.html

2014-George Soros loads up on bearish market bet

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/08/15/george-soros-loads-up-on-bearish-market-bet.html

2015-Soros says these ‘hellish’ markets make him less bullish
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-says-these-hellish-markets-make-him-less-bullish-2015-01-23
2016-George Soros Sees Crisis in Global Markets That Echoe  
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/global-markets-at-the-beginning-of-a-crisis-george-soros-says




WHEN EVERYONE BEARISH WE SHOULD BULLISH 

I will react contradict against the market. Some people say I'm crazy and too optimist.

I told them, the Bear or Bull wont never tell when its gonna be happen but it gave u sign.


SIGN OF BULLISH REVERSAL/ MARKET RECOVERY

1. So many people being retrench by their employer

2. Inflation rate keep arising 

3. There so many news appeared in media about market recession

4. Many people complaint about living cost

5. Most of Commodity price at unrealistic price, bottom line price

6. Many company issue for bankruptcy 

7. Property price slowing down.

8. Many people put their money in Fix Deposit

9. Bank started to tighten loan approval



TODAY, WHEN CRUDE OIL PRICE DROP BELOW 30USD, AND CHINA DROP ALMOST 400POINTS, DOW FUTURE ALSO RED, PLUS THERE IS NEWS SOROS SHORTING YUEN BUT MALAYSIAN INDEX KLCI CLOSE GREEN AT 1626 points,WHEN OTHER REGIONAL MARKET ARE RED.

So what is the point to be highlighted here?

When we talk about sentiment, we have to study the overall picture of the market trend. Many people think, KLCI will follow other market sentiment, but I remain bullish from the first day I wrote this blog. Why?

MOST INVESTOR IS OVERACTING TOWARD MARKET SENTIMENT. 

When most people think in the same way, so who gonna make business?

I give u simple analogy, in business how do you want to become competent and different from others?

Do you have to do the same thing what others do? Or you need to think differently?

Thats how economy work. If you do same things what other people do, u will create lots of competition among you, and then u hardly to move forward.

Same goes to stock market, when most people thought bearish, bearish market hardly to move and then it will replace by bullish market.

I'm I correct?

In the next chapter, I will elaborate more on Malaysian Financial Fundamental.

Stay Tune Friends....

Oil Industry and Stock Market

Hi meet u all ones again...

So many years, many people thought, working in oil and gas industry is the best place to earn high salary.

For many years many people never thought that the world energy demand never fall  and company continue generate high revenue.

Before I step further , let me tell you the business segment in oil and gas industry

Q1 : WHAT IS THE BUSINESS SEGMENT IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY?

Oil And Gas Business Segment:

1. Upstream(Exploration, offshore engineering, subsea, exploration)
2. Downstream (LNG, onshore engineering)
3. Mixtream (Separate oil,gas and debris)
4. Refinery (Extract kerosene, gasoline)
5. Petrcohemical (process polyethylene , ethane)

This is the simple Economy rules u may need to know:

High Oil price- cause high raw material cost
Low Oil Price- cause  low raw material cost

> Sector that HIGH PERFORM during high oil price is UPSTREAM.

-more project and exploration activity can take place during this period. More oil company will generate high revenue by selling the crude oil to the end user at high price.
- So what happen recently, the supply is surplus then demand. Recently, Iran oil sanction production have been uplift. This will increase pressure in world oil production

> Sector that HIGH PERFORM during low oil price is PETROCHEMICAL & DOWNSTREAM.

-Basically these sector more and less process end user product. Chemical such polyethylene use to produce plastic. Do you see any plastic material decrease in price recently? I guess know. Due to inflation rate high, the demand remain the same.

Gradually, low crude oil price shall benefit, Transportation, Export, Services, Tourism , F&B and Construction sector.

Q2 :DOES CURRENT LOW OIL PRICE GIVE NEGATIVE IMPACT TOWARD STOCK MARKET?

I took Malaysia as example because I'm living in Malaysia.

Over the years, oil revenue had contributed almost 30% of government income. The current low level of oil price pressing down our oil producer country to trim their budget.

The less revenue in oil price cause Malaysia government to introduce new economy mechanism to sustain their income.

The rationalization of tax, by implement the GST, impose the subsidy .

26-27 January 2016, Malaysian parliament set to debate on Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement(TPPA) whether to sign or not. This is an important event to mark our next move in new economy demography.

Like it or not, I believe Malaysian government is desperately to sign the agreement as this will attract more foreign investor to Malaysia.


INDEX KLCI VS WTI CRUDE PRICE

Ok, let take a look at Figure 1 and 2. The green vertical line show the year 2008-2009 when market correction took place.

When the oil price slump in 2008 to 2009 from the peak 140usd to lowest 34usd within one year, it cause a global market correction.

Subprime Crisis Direct Link:

https://business.cch.com/images/banner/subprime.pdf

Infect the correction actually co-current with Subprime Crisis in 2008. After the issue resolved, KLCI eventually move higher than previous peak in 2008 although crude oil failed to break previous high at 140usd.

Figure 1- KLCI MONTHLY CHART

FIGURE 2- WTI CRUDE OIL MONTHLY CHART

STOCK IN DIFFERENT SECTOR

Take a look at figure 3, 4 and 5. Every stock have their own movement base on their structure business. When we talk about stock market, we talk about business. Every stock give different indicator.

OCNCASH is export base company

SUPERMX is rubber company

SKPETRO is under oil and gas industry

From the chart we can see, although when so many people predict current economy is not good, you can see some sector remain firm making profit and move uptrend. Only oil and gas sector remain downtrend.

FIGURE 3- OCNCASH MONTHLY CHART

FIGURE 4- SKPETRO MONTHLY CHART

FIGURE 5- SUPERMX MONTHLY CHART

So I may conclude, every stock have their own movement. Don't panic when other panic. 

The stock market is not crash yet. The recovery phase is about to begin.

I will elaborate more in my next blogging about market correction

STAY TUNE....

MYR VS USD, 2016 is the year of recovery phase

2016 year of full surprise. The beginning of the year many people start worry about current economy situation. Many employer has started layoff their employee and offer VSS or MSS . Oil and Gas industry are the most effected due to current low Oil Price.

Here i want to share u something about the MYR currency. Currency reflected the strength of our economy demand by foreign investor. Since 2014, our currency depreciating from RM3.8 to RM 4.4 highest in 2015. My view is, we have reach to the peak of recession or we shall call slowing down in economy.

My view is base on Technical Analysis. There is indicator we shall observe and do forecasting for the next few years.

Between 2014-2015-2016, there are few issue in our country that have been resolved.
1. The glut issue about 1MDB  debt.
2. Oil price shrink from 104usd to lowest as per today 27usd
3. Political glut internal issue between tansri Muhyidin Yassin and our PM, Datuk Najib
4. Slow down China Market and Japan

Moreless the issue has already resolve. I believe 2016, is the year of recovery. People may not aware on the recovery but the chart tell u the whole story.

We are now at the peak of recession, not the beginning. Thing already happened but we shall prepare ourselves to remain in positive mood.

2016, THE YEAR WORLD ECONOMY MARKET SHALL RECOVERY

My Journey

Segalanya bermula disini.....

Siapa Saya?...


Saya ilhami abdul malik, seorang anak muda berusia 27 tahun menetap di Selangor

Saya kini sedang melanjutkan pelajaran dalam kos Master Kejuruteraan Petroleum secara sambilan di kampus UTM Kuala Lumpur pada hujung minggu.

Pada hari kerja saya mengambil kos "Advance Diploma in Oil And Gas Operation" di usahakan oleh Think Plus Academy. Kos ini adalah pensijilan oleh City Quil College, UK dan di malaysia ia berkolobrasi dengan UTHM dan tenaga pengajar adalah dari Think Plus Academy. Pernah dengar kursus INSTEP? Lebih kurang jer...cuma saya tak kene bond dengan Petronas.


Dalam masa sama saya kerja part time sebagai "Associate Remiser di Maybank Investment" selaku chart Analysis. Siapa minat dengan pelaburan saham dan ingin belajar boleh hubungi saya.

Dalam masa sama saya adalah pengusaha sublet secara kecil-kecilan. Siapa berminat nak cari rumah sewa di lokasi di bawah, boleh hubungi saya.

1. TTDI Jaya
2. Damansara Perdana

Dalam masa sama saya dalam usaha menjadi Tutor dalam subjek2 Add Math, Math Mode, Advance Calculus, Physic jika ada kelapangan bagi mengisi masa terluang yang ada

Saya terfikir untuk menulis blog ini dikala ramai rakyat malaysia berada dalam situasi "panic" dalam isu ekonomi serantau.

Saya berkelulusan Jurutera dan pernah berkerja di salah sebuah syarikat konsultasi minyak selama 3 tahun sebelum diberhentikan atas faktor keadaan kejatuhan harga minyak mentah dunia

Saya akan huraikan lebih lanjut mengenai keadaan ekonomi semasa kerana ia menjadi minat saya sejak dahulu lagi..

Stay Tune...........